After months of pundits talking about what will happen Oscar night, this period in the weeks before the show is when things finally start to become clear.
The SAG Awards took place over the weekend, and historically many of the winners who lift statues there will do the same on February 28. A big reason for that? The members of SAG (Screen Actors Guild) make up the largest branch that casts ballots for the Academy Awards, with over 1,100 members.
Here are three wins from Saturday's ceremony that we believe shape who will win Oscar night:
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Leonardo DiCaprio will win his first Oscar.
This one you can put down in permanent ink on your Oscar-pool ballot. Winning the award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role at the SAG Awards pretty much locks DiCaprio for the best actor Oscar. This will be his first win, though he's been nominated three other times in the best actor category and once for supporting actor.
Things are looking good for Sylvester Stallone.
Thirty-nine years after being nominated in the best actor category for "Rocky," prospects have improved for Stallone to take the Oscar for best supporting actor in "Creed," in which he reprises the role of Rocky Balboa. His major competition, Mark Rylance in "Bridge of Spies" and Christian Bale in "The Big Short," lost out to Idris Elba ("Beasts of No Nation") on Saturday.
Stallone was not nominated in the category (and Elba was shockingly snubbed in the Oscar category), so the Elba win could be a big tell of how SAG members voted for the Oscars.
We officially have an Oscar race for Best Picture.
First "Spotlight" came out and became the early best picture frontrunner. Then "The Big Short" was released at the end of the year and had its own loyal following. And that's how it's been most of awards season, both titles jockeying for the lead among the awards pundits. But with the best performance by a cast win by "Spotlight" at the SAG Awards, the movie has now edged ahead.
Keep an eye out, however, for the winners at the PGA Awards (Producers Guild of America) and the DGA Awards (Directors Guild of America). As Awards Daily's Sasha Stone points out, if "Spotlight" or "The Big Short" won both of those, historically, it would have best picture in the bag.
https://twitter.com/mims/statuses/693638545743831041
Only two films in all SAG/Oscar history to win BP with ensemble and not DGA or PGA: Shakespeare in Love, Crash.
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